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Elevated blood pressure and risk of mitral regurgitation: A longitudinal cohort study of 5.5 million United Kingdom adults

Ma, 17/10/2017 - 22:00

by Kazem Rahimi, Hamid Mohseni, Catherine M. Otto, Nathalie Conrad, Jenny Tran, Milad Nazarzadeh, Mark Woodward, Terence Dwyer, Stephen MacMahon

Background

Mitral regurgitation in people without prior cardiac disease is considered a degenerative disease with no established risk factors for its prevention. We aimed to test the hypothesis that elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) across its usual spectrum is associated with higher risk of mitral regurgitation.

Methods and findings

We used linked electronic health records from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2015. CPRD covers approximately 7% of the current UK population and is broadly representative of the population by age, sex, and ethnicity. About 5.5 million UK patients with no known cardiovascular or valve disease at baseline were included in this cohort study. We investigated the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and risk of mitral regurgitation using Cox regression models. Our primary exposure variable was SBP and our primary outcome was incident reports of mitral regurgitation, which were identified from hospital discharge reports or primary care records.Of the 5,553,984 patients in the CPRD that met our inclusion criteria, during the 10-year follow-up period, 28,655 (0.52%) were diagnosed with mitral regurgitation and a further 1,262 (0.02%) were diagnosed with mitral stenosis. SBP was continuously related to the risk of mitral regurgitation with no evidence of a nadir down to 115 mmHg (p < 0.001). Each 20 mmHg increment in SBP was associated with a 26% higher risk of mitral regurgitation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.26; CI 1.23, 1.29). The observed association was partially mediated by diseases affecting the left ventricle during follow-up (myocardial infarction [MI], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], cardiomyopathy, and heart failure). However, the percentage of excess risk mediated (PERM) by these proximate causes of secondary mitral regurgitation was only 13% (CI 6.1%, 20%), and accounting for them had little effect on the long-term association between SBP and mitral regurgitation (mediator-adjusted HR 1.22; CI 1.20, 1.25; p < 0.001). Associations were similar for each 10 mmHg increment in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (p < 0.001) or each 15 mmHg increment in pulse pressure (PP) (p < 0.001). By contrast, there was no association between SBP and risk of mitral stenosis (HR per 20 mmHg higher SBP 1.03; CI 0.93, 1.14; p = 0.58). These analyses are based on routinely collected data from health records which may be sensitive to measurement errors, and the observed associations may not be generalizable to less severe and subclinical cases of mitral regurgitation.

Conclusions

Long-term exposure to elevated BP across its whole spectrum is associated with an increased risk of primary and secondary mitral regurgitation. These findings suggest that BP control may be of importance in the prevention of mitral regurgitation.

A combination of plasma phospholipid fatty acids and its association with incidence of type 2 diabetes: The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

Me, 11/10/2017 - 22:00

by Fumiaki Imamura, Stephen J. Sharp, Albert Koulman, Matthias B. Schulze, Janine Kröger, Julian L. Griffin, José M. Huerta, Marcela Guevara, Ivonne Sluijs, Antonio Agudo, Eva Ardanaz, Beverley Balkau, Heiner Boeing, Veronique Chajes, Christina C. Dahm, Courtney Dow, Guy Fagherazzi, Edith J. M. Feskens, Paul W. Franks, Diana Gavrila, Marc Gunter, Rudolf Kaaks, Timothy J. Key, Kay-Tee Khaw, Tilman Kühn, Olle Melander, Elena Molina-Portillo, Peter M. Nilsson, Anja Olsen, Kim Overvad, Domenico Palli, Salvatore Panico, Olov Rolandsson, Sabina Sieri, Carlotta Sacerdote, Nadia Slimani, Annemieke M. W. Spijkerman, Anne Tjønneland, Rosario Tumino, Yvonne T. van der Schouw, Claudia Langenberg, Elio Riboli, Nita G. Forouhi, Nick J. Wareham

Background

Combinations of multiple fatty acids may influence cardiometabolic risk more than single fatty acids. The association of a combination of fatty acids with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) has not been evaluated.

Methods and findings

We measured plasma phospholipid fatty acids by gas chromatography in 27,296 adults, including 12,132 incident cases of T2D, over the follow-up period between baseline (1991–1998) and 31 December 2007 in 8 European countries in EPIC-InterAct, a nested case-cohort study. The first principal component derived by principal component analysis of 27 individual fatty acids (mole percentage) was the main exposure (subsequently called the fatty acid pattern score [FA-pattern score]). The FA-pattern score was partly characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, stearic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very-long-chain saturated fatty acids and low concentrations of γ-linolenic acid, palmitic acid, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids, and it explained 16.1% of the overall variability of the 27 fatty acids. Based on country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analysis, the FA-pattern score was associated with lower incident T2D. Comparing the top to the bottom fifth of the score, the hazard ratio of incident T2D was 0.23 (95% CI 0.19–0.29) adjusted for potential confounders and 0.37 (95% CI 0.27–0.50) further adjusted for metabolic risk factors. The association changed little after adjustment for individual fatty acids or fatty acid subclasses. In cross-sectional analyses relating the FA-pattern score to metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors, the FA-pattern score was inversely associated with adiposity, triglycerides, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, a genetic score representing insulin resistance, and dietary intakes of soft drinks and alcohol and was positively associated with high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and intakes of polyunsaturated fat, dietary fibre, and coffee (p < 0.05 each). Limitations include potential measurement error in the fatty acids and other model covariates and possible residual confounding.

Conclusions

A combination of individual fatty acids, characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very long-chain fatty acids, was associated with lower incidence of T2D. The specific fatty acid pattern may be influenced by metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors.

The clinical utility and cost impact of cystatin C measurement in the diagnosis and management of chronic kidney disease: A primary care cohort study

Ma, 10/10/2017 - 22:00

by Adam Shardlow, Natasha J. McIntyre, Simon D. S. Fraser, Paul Roderick, James Raftery, Richard J. Fluck, Christopher W. McIntyre, Maarten W. Taal

Background

To reduce over-diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) resulting from the inaccuracy of creatinine-based estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR), UK and international guidelines recommend that cystatin-C-based estimates of GFR be used to confirm or exclude the diagnosis in people with GFR 45–59 ml/min/1.73 m2 and no albuminuria (CKD G3aA1). Whilst there is good evidence for cystatin C being a marker of GFR and risk in people with CKD, its use to define CKD in this manner has not been evaluated in primary care, the setting in which most people with GFR in this range are managed.

Methods and findings

A total of 1,741 people with CKD G3a or G3b defined by 2 estimated GFR (eGFR) values more than 90 days apart were recruited to the Renal Risk in Derby study between June 2008 and March 2010. Using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations, we compared GFR estimated from creatinine (eGFRcreat), cystatin C (eGFRcys), and both (eGFRcreat-cys) at baseline and over 5 years of follow-up. We analysed the proportion of participants with CKD G3aA1 reclassified to ‘no CKD’ or more advanced CKD with the latter two equations. We further assessed the impact of using cystatin-C-based eGFR in risk prediction equations for CKD progression and all-cause mortality and investigated non-GFR determinants of eGFRcys. Finally, we estimated the cost implications of implementing National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance to use eGFRcys to confirm the diagnosis in people classified as CKD G3aA1 by eGFRcreat. Mean eGFRcys was significantly lower than mean eGFRcreat (45.1 ml/min/1.73 m2, 95% CI 44.4 to 45.9, versus 53.6 ml/min/1.73 m2, 95% CI 53.0 to 54.1, P < 0.001). eGFRcys reclassified 7.7% (50 of 653) of those with CKD G3aA1 by eGFRcreat to eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. However, a much greater proportion (59.0%, 385 of 653) were classified to an eGFR category indicating more severe CKD. A similar pattern was seen using eGFRcreat-cys, but lower proportions were reclassified. Change in eGFRcreat and eGFRcys over 5 years were weakly correlated (r = 0.33, P < 0.001), but eGFRcys identified more people as having CKD progression (18.2% versus 10.5%). Multivariable analysis using eGFRcreat as an independent variable identified age, smoking status, body mass index, haemoglobin, serum uric acid, serum albumin, albuminuria, and C reactive protein as non-GFR determinants of eGFRcys. Use of eGFRcys or eGFRcreat-cys did not improve discrimination in risk prediction models for CKD progression and all-cause mortality compared to similar models with eGFRcreat. Application of the NICE guidance, which assumed cost savings, to participants with CKD G3aA1 increased the cost of monitoring by £23 per patient, which if extrapolated to be applied throughout England would increase the cost of testing and monitoring CKD by approximately £31 million per year. Limitations of this study include the lack of a measured GFR and the potential lack of ethnic diversity in the study cohort.

Conclusions

Implementation of current guidelines on eGFRcys testing in our study population of older people in primary care resulted in only a small reduction in diagnosed CKD but classified a greater proportion as having more advanced CKD than eGFRcreat. Use of eGFRcys did not improve risk prediction in this population and was associated with increased cost. Our data therefore do not support implementation of these recommendations in primary care. Further studies are warranted to define the most appropriate clinical application of eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys.

Quantifying underreporting of law-enforcement-related deaths in United States vital statistics and news-media-based data sources: A capture–recapture analysis

Ma, 10/10/2017 - 22:00

by Justin M. Feldman, Sofia Gruskin, Brent A. Coull, Nancy Krieger

Background

Prior research suggests that United States governmental sources documenting the number of law-enforcement-related deaths (i.e., fatalities due to injuries inflicted by law enforcement officers) undercount these incidents. The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), administered by the federal government and based on state death certificate data, identifies such deaths by assigning them diagnostic codes corresponding to “legal intervention” in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases–10th Revision (ICD-10). Newer, nongovernmental databases track law-enforcement-related deaths by compiling news media reports and provide an opportunity to assess the magnitude and determinants of suspected NVSS underreporting. Our a priori hypotheses were that underreporting by the NVSS would exceed that by the news media sources, and that underreporting rates would be higher for decedents of color versus white, decedents in lower versus higher income counties, decedents killed by non-firearm (e.g., Taser) versus firearm mechanisms, and deaths recorded by a medical examiner versus coroner.

Methods and findings

We created a new US-wide dataset by matching cases reported in a nongovernmental, news-media-based dataset produced by the newspaper The Guardian, The Counted, to identifiable NVSS mortality records for 2015. We conducted 2 main analyses for this cross-sectional study: (1) an estimate of the total number of deaths and the proportion unreported by each source using capture–recapture analysis and (2) an assessment of correlates of underreporting of law-enforcement-related deaths (demographic characteristics of the decedent, mechanism of death, death investigator type [medical examiner versus coroner], county median income, and county urbanicity) in the NVSS using multilevel logistic regression. We estimated that the total number of law-enforcement-related deaths in 2015 was 1,166 (95% CI: 1,153, 1,184). There were 599 deaths reported in The Counted only, 36 reported in the NVSS only, 487 reported in both lists, and an estimated 44 (95% CI: 31, 62) not reported in either source. The NVSS documented 44.9% (95% CI: 44.2%, 45.4%) of the total number of deaths, and The Counted documented 93.1% (95% CI: 91.7%, 94.2%). In a multivariable mixed-effects logistic model that controlled for all individual- and county-level covariates, decedents injured by non-firearm mechanisms had higher odds of underreporting in the NVSS than those injured by firearms (odds ratio [OR]: 68.2; 95% CI: 15.7, 297.5; p < 0.01), and underreporting was also more likely outside of the highest-income-quintile counties (OR for the lowest versus highest income quintile: 10.1; 95% CI: 2.4, 42.8; p < 0.01). There was no statistically significant difference in the odds of underreporting in the NVSS for deaths certified by coroners compared to medical examiners, and the odds of underreporting did not vary by race/ethnicity. One limitation of our analyses is that we were unable to examine the characteristics of cases that were unreported in The Counted.

Conclusions

The media-based source, The Counted, reported a considerably higher proportion of law-enforcement-related deaths than the NVSS, which failed to report a majority of these incidents. For the NVSS, rates of underreporting were higher in lower income counties and for decedents killed by non-firearm mechanisms. There was no evidence suggesting that underreporting varied by death investigator type (medical examiner versus coroner) or race/ethnicity.

Firearm-Related Injury and Death: A U.S. Health Care Crisis in Need of Health Care Professionals

Lu, 09/10/2017 - 22:00

by Darren B. Taichman, Howard Bauchner, Jeffrey M. Drazen, Christine Laine, Larry Peiperl

The U.S.-based Editors of ICMJE journals call for health-care professionals to act against the public health crisis of injury and death from guns.

Associations between an IgG3 polymorphism in the binding domain for FcRn, transplacental transfer of malaria-specific IgG3, and protection against <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> malaria during infancy: A birth cohort study in Benin

Lu, 09/10/2017 - 22:00

by Celia Dechavanne, Sebastien Dechavanne, Ibrahim Sadissou, Adjimon Gatien Lokossou, Fernanda Alvarado, Magalie Dambrun, Kabirou Moutairou, David Courtin, Gregory Nuel, Andre Garcia, Florence Migot-Nabias, Christopher L. King

Background

Transplacental transfer of maternal immunoglobulin G (IgG) to the fetus helps to protect against malaria and other infections in infancy. Recent studies have emphasized the important role of malaria-specific IgG3 in malaria immunity, and its transfer may reduce the risk of malaria in infancy. Human IgGs are actively transferred across the placenta by binding the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) expressed within the endosomes of the syncytiotrophoblastic membrane. Histidine at position 435 (H435) provides for optimal Fc–IgG binding. In contrast to other IgG subclasses, IgG3 is highly polymorphic and usually contains an arginine at position 435, which reduces its binding affinity to FcRn in vitro. The reduced binding to FcRn is associated with reduced transplacental transfer and reduced half-life of IgG3 in vivo. Some haplotypes of IgG3 have histidine at position 435. This study examines the hypotheses that the IgG3-H435 variant promotes increased transplacental transfer of malaria-specific antibodies and a prolonged IgG3 half-life in infants and that its presence correlates with protection against clinical malaria during infancy.

Methods and findings

In Benin, 497 mother–infant pairs were included in a longitudinal birth cohort. Both maternal and cord serum samples were assayed for levels of IgG1 and IgG3 specific for MSP119, MSP2 (both allelic families, 3D7 and FC27), MSP3, GLURP (both regions, R0 and R2), and AMA1 antigens of Plasmodium falciparum. Cord:maternal ratios were calculated. The maternal IgG3 gene was sequenced to identify the IgG3-H435 polymorphism. A multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the association between maternal IgG3-H435 polymorphism and transplacental transfer of IgG3, adjusting for hypergammaglobulinemia, maternal malaria, and infant malaria exposure. Twenty-four percent of Beninese women living in an area highly endemic for malaria had the IgG3-H435 allele (377 women homozygous for the IgG3-R435 allele, 117 women heterozygous for the IgG3-R/H alleles, and 3 women homozygous for the IgG3-H435 allele). Women with the IgG3-H435 allele had a 78% (95% CI 17%, 170%, p = 0.007) increased transplacental transfer of GLURP-R2 IgG3 compared to those without the IgG3-H435 allele. Furthermore, in infants born to mothers with the IgG3-H435 variant, a 28% longer IgG3 half-life was noted (95% CI 4%, 59%, p = 0.02) compared to infants born to mothers homozygous for the IgG3-R435 allele. Similar findings were observed for AMA1, MSP2-3D7, MSP3, GLURP-R0, and GLURP-R2 but not for MSP119 and MSP2-FC27. Infants born to women with IgG3-H435 had a 32% lower risk of symptomatic malaria during infancy (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.68 [95% CI 0.51, 0.91], p = 0.01) compared to infants born to mothers homozygous for IgG3-R435. We did not find a lower risk of asymptomatic malaria in infants born to women with or without IgG3-H435. Limitations of the study were the inability to determine (i) the actual amount of IgG3-H435 relative to IgG-R435 in serum samples and (ii) the proportion of malaria-specific IgG produced by infants versus acquired from their mothers.

Conclusions

An arginine-to-histidine replacement at residue 435 in the binding domain of IgG3 to FcRn increases the transplacental transfer and half-life of malaria-specific IgG3 in young infants and is associated with reduced risk of clinical malaria during infancy. The IgG3-H435 allele may be under positive selection, given its relatively high frequency in malaria endemic areas.

Safety and immunogenicity of rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola vaccine in adults and children in Lambaréné, Gabon: A phase I randomised trial

Ve, 06/10/2017 - 22:00

by Selidji T. Agnandji, José F. Fernandes, Emmanuel B. Bache, Régis M. Obiang Mba, Jessica S. Brosnahan, Lumeka Kabwende, Paul Pitzinger, Pieter Staarink, Marguerite Massinga-Loembe, Verena Krähling, Nadine Biedenkopf, Sarah Katharina Fehling, Thomas Strecker, David J. Clark, Henry M. Staines, Jay W. Hooper, Peter Silvera, Vasee Moorthy, Marie-Paule Kieny, Akim A. Adegnika, Martin P. Grobusch, Stephan Becker, Michael Ramharter, Benjamin Mordmüller, Bertrand Lell, VEBCON Consortium , Sanjeev Krishna, Peter G. Kremsner

Background

The rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine prevented Ebola virus disease when used at 2 × 107 plaque-forming units (PFU) in a trial in Guinea. This study provides further safety and immunogenicity data.

Methods and findings

A randomised, open-label phase I trial in Lambaréné, Gabon, studied 5 single intramuscular vaccine doses of 3 × 103, 3 × 104, 3 × 105, 3 × 106, or 2 × 107 PFU in 115 adults and a dose of 2 × 107 PFU in 20 adolescents and 20 children. The primary objective was safety and tolerability 28 days post-injection. Immunogenicity, viraemia, and shedding post-vaccination were evaluated as secondary objectives. In adults, mild-to-moderate adverse events were frequent, but there were no serious or severe adverse events related to vaccination. Before vaccination, Zaire Ebola virus (ZEBOV)–glycoprotein (GP)–specific and ZEBOV antibodies were detected in 11% and 27% of adults, respectively. In adults, 74%–100% of individuals who received a dose 3 × 104, 3 × 105, 3 × 106, or 2 × 107 PFU had a ≥4.0-fold increase in geometric mean titres (GMTs) of ZEBOV-GP-specific antibodies at day 28, reaching GMTs of 489 (95% CI: 264–908), 556 (95% CI: 280–1,101), 1,245 (95% CI: 899–1,724), and 1,503 (95% CI: 931–2,426), respectively. Twenty-two percent of adults had a ≥4-fold increase of ZEBOV antibodies, with GMTs at day 28 of 1,015 (647–1,591), 1,887 (1,154–3,085), 1,445 (1,013–2,062), and 3,958 (2,249–6,967) for the same doses, respectively. These antibodies persisted up to day 180 for doses ≥3 × 105 PFU. Adults with antibodies before vaccination had higher GMTs throughout. Neutralising antibodies were detected in more than 50% of participants at doses ≥3 × 105 PFU. As in adults, no serious or severe adverse events related to vaccine occurred in adolescents or children. At day 2, vaccine RNA titres were higher for adolescents and children than adults. At day 7, 78% of adolescents and 35% of children had recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus RNA detectable in saliva. The vaccine induced high GMTs of ZEBOV-GP-specific antibodies at day 28 in adolescents, 1,428 (95% CI: 1,025–1,989), and children, 1,620 (95% CI: 806–3,259), and in both groups antibody titres increased up to day 180. The absence of a control group, lack of stratification for baseline antibody status, and imbalances in male/female ratio are the main limitations of this study.

Conclusions

Our data confirm the acceptable safety and immunogenicity profile of the 2 × 107 PFU dose in adults and support consideration of lower doses for paediatric populations and those who request boosting.

Trial registration

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR201411000919191

Regional initiatives for malaria elimination: Building and maintaining partnerships

Gi, 05/10/2017 - 22:00

by Andrew A. Lover, Kelly E. Harvard, Alistair E. Lindawson, Cara Smith Gueye, Rima Shretta, Roly Gosling, Richard Feachem

Andrew Lover and colleagues discuss regional malaria initiatives, the strengths and challenges.

Assessing the neuroprotective benefits for babies of antenatal magnesium sulphate: An individual participant data meta-analysis

Me, 04/10/2017 - 22:00

by Caroline A. Crowther, Philippa F. Middleton, Merryn Voysey, Lisa Askie, Lelia Duley, Peter G. Pryde, Stéphane Marret, Lex W. Doyle, for the AMICABLE Group

Background

Babies born preterm are at an increased risk of dying in the first weeks of life, and those who survive have a higher rate of cerebral palsy (CP) compared with babies born at term. The aim of this individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis (MA) was to assess the effects of antenatal magnesium sulphate, compared with no magnesium treatment, given to women at risk of preterm birth on important maternal and fetal outcomes, including survival free of CP, and whether effects differed by participant or treatment characteristics such as the reason the woman was at risk of preterm birth, why treatment was given, the gestational age at which magnesium sulphate treatment was received, or the dose and timing of the administration of magnesium sulphate.

Methods and findings

Trials in which women considered at risk of preterm birth (<37 weeks’ gestation) were randomised to magnesium sulphate or control treatment and where neurologic outcomes for the baby were reported were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcomes were infant death or CP and severe maternal outcome potentially related to treatment. Studies were identified based on the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth search strategy using the terms [antenatal or prenatal] and [magnesium] and [preterm or premature or neuroprotection or 'cerebral palsy']. The date of the last search was 28 February 2017. IPD were sought from investigators with eligible trials. Risk of bias was assessed using criteria from the Cochrane Collaboration. For each prespecified outcome, IPD were analysed using a 1-stage approach. All 5 trials identified were included, with 5,493 women and 6,131 babies. Overall, there was no clear effect of magnesium sulphate treatment compared with no treatment on the primary infant composite outcome of death or CP (relative risk [RR] 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85 to 1.05, 6,131 babies, 5 trials, p = 0.07 for heterogeneity of treatment effect across trials). In the prespecified sensitivity analysis restricted to data from the 4 trials in which the intent of treatment was fetal neuroprotection, there was a significant reduction in the risk of death or CP with magnesium sulphate treatment compared with no treatment (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99, 4,448 babies, 4 trials), with no significant heterogeneity (p = 0.28). The number needed to treat (NNT) to benefit was 41 women/babies to prevent 1 baby from either dying or having CP. For the primary outcome of severe maternal outcome potentially related to magnesium sulphate treatment, no events were recorded from the 2 trials providing data. When the individual components of the composite infant outcome were assessed, no effect was seen for death overall (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.17, 6,131 babies, 5 trials) or in the analysis of death using only data from trials with the intent of fetal neuroprotection (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.13, 4,448 babies, 4 trials). For cerebral palsy in survivors, magnesium sulphate treatment had a strong protective effect in both the overall analysis (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.87, 4,601 babies, 5 trials, NNT to benefit 46) and the neuroprotective intent analysis (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.87, 3,988 babies, 4 trials, NNT to benefit 42). No statistically significant differences were seen for any of the other secondary outcomes. The treatment effect varied little by the reason the woman was at risk of preterm birth, the gestational age at which magnesium sulphate treatment was given, the total dose received, or whether maintenance therapy was used. A limitation of the study was that not all trials could provide the data required for the planned analyses so that combined with low event rates for some important clinical events, the power to find a difference was limited.

Conclusions

Antenatal magnesium sulphate given prior to preterm birth for fetal neuroprotection prevents CP and reduces the combined risk of fetal/infant death or CP. Benefit is seen regardless of the reason for preterm birth, with similar effects across a range of preterm gestational ages and different treatment regimens. Widespread adoption worldwide of this relatively inexpensive, easy-to-administer treatment would lead to important global health benefits for infants born preterm.

Gabapentin, opioids, and the risk of opioid-related death: A population-based nested case–control study

Ma, 03/10/2017 - 22:00

by Tara Gomes, David N. Juurlink, Tony Antoniou, Muhammad M. Mamdani, J. Michael Paterson, Wim van den Brink

Background

Prescription opioid use is highly associated with risk of opioid-related death, with 1 of every 550 chronic opioid users dying within approximately 2.5 years of their first opioid prescription. Although gabapentin is widely perceived as safe, drug-induced respiratory depression has been described when gabapentin is used alone or in combination with other medications. Because gabapentin and opioids are both commonly prescribed for pain, the likelihood of co-prescription is high. However, no published studies have examined whether concomitant gabapentin therapy is associated with an increased risk of accidental opioid-related death in patients receiving opioids. The objective of this study was to investigate whether co-prescription of opioids and gabapentin is associated with an increased risk of accidental opioid-related mortality.

Methods and findings

We conducted a population-based nested case–control study among opioid users who were residents of Ontario, Canada, between August 1, 1997, and December 31, 2013, using administrative databases. Cases, defined as opioid users who died of an opioid-related cause, were matched with up to 4 controls who also used opioids on age, sex, year of index date, history of chronic kidney disease, and a disease risk index. After matching, we included 1,256 cases and 4,619 controls. The primary exposure was concomitant gabapentin use in the 120 days preceding the index date. A secondary analysis characterized gabapentin dose as low (<900 mg daily), moderate (900 to 1,799 mg daily), or high (≥1,800 mg daily). A sensitivity analysis examined the effect of concomitant nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use in the preceding 120 days. Overall, 12.3% of cases (155 of 1,256) and 6.8% of controls (313 of 4,619) were prescribed gabapentin in the prior 120 days. After multivariable adjustment, co-prescription of opioids and gabapentin was associated with a significantly increased odds of opioid-related death (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.47, p < 0.001; adjusted OR [aOR] 1.49, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.88, p < 0.001) compared to opioid prescription alone. In the dose–response analysis, moderate-dose (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.46 to 2.87, p < 0.001; aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.28, p = 0.024) and high-dose (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.58 to 3.08, p < 0.001; aOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.27, p = 0.015) gabapentin use was associated with a nearly 60% increase in the odds of opioid-related death relative to no concomitant gabapentin use. As expected, we found no significant association between co-prescription of opioids and NSAIDs and opioid-related death (OR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.27, p = 0.113; aOR 1.14, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.32, p = 0.083). In an exploratory analysis of patients at risk of combined opioid and gabapentin use, we found that 46.0% (45,173 of 98,288) of gabapentin users in calendar year 2013 received at least 1 concomitant prescription for an opioid. This study was limited to individuals eligible for public drug coverage in Ontario, we were only able to identify prescriptions reimbursed by the government and dispensed from retail pharmacies, and information on indication for gabapentin use was not available. Furthermore, as with all observational studies, confounding due to unmeasured variables is a potential source of bias.

Conclusions

In this study we found that among patients receiving prescription opioids, concomitant treatment with gabapentin was associated with a substantial increase in the risk of opioid-related death. Clinicians should consider carefully whether to continue prescribing this combination of products and, when the combination is deemed necessary, should closely monitor their patients and adjust opioid dose accordingly. Future research should investigate whether a similar interaction exists between pregabalin and opioids.

When cost-effective interventions are unaffordable: Integrating cost-effectiveness and budget impact in priority setting for global health programs

Lu, 02/10/2017 - 22:00

by Alyssa Bilinski, Peter Neumann, Joshua Cohen, Teja Thorat, Katherine McDaniel, Joshua A. Salomon

Potential cost-effective barriers in cost-effectiveness studies mean that budgetary impact analyses should also be included in post-2015 Sustainable Development Goal projects says Joshua Salomon and colleagues.

Chronic disease concordance within Indian households: A cross-sectional study

Ve, 29/09/2017 - 22:00

by Shivani A. Patel, Preet K. Dhillon, Dimple Kondal, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Kashvi Kahol, Sathya Prakash Manimunda, Anil J. Purty, Ajit Deshpande, P. C. Negi, Sulaiman Ladhani, Gurudayal Singh Toteja, Vikram Patel, Dorairaj Prabhakaran

Background

The household is a potentially important but understudied unit of analysis and intervention in chronic disease research. We sought to estimate the association between living with someone with a chronic condition and one’s own chronic condition status.

Methods and findings

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of population-based household- and individual-level data collected in 4 socioculturally and geographically diverse settings across rural and urban India in 2013 and 2014. Of 10,703 adults ages 18 years and older with coresiding household members surveyed, data from 7,522 adults (mean age 39 years) in 2,574 households with complete covariate information were analyzed. The main outcome measures were diabetes (fasting plasma glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL or taking medication), common mental disorder (General Health Questionnaire score ≥ 12), hypertension (blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg or taking medication), obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2), and high cholesterol (total blood cholesterol ≥ 240 mg/dL or taking medication). Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to model associations with adjustment for a participant’s age, sex, education, marital status, religion, and study site. Inverse probability weighting was applied to account for missing data. We found that 44% of adults had 1 or more of the chronic conditions examined. Irrespective of familial relationship, adults who resided with another adult with any chronic condition had 29% higher adjusted relative odds of having 1 or more chronic conditions themselves (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.29; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.10–1.50). We also observed positive statistically significant associations of diabetes, common mental disorder, and hypertension with any chronic condition (aORs ranging from 1.19 to 1.61) in the analysis of all coresiding household members. Associations, however, were stronger for concordance of certain chronic conditions among coresiding household members. Specifically, we observed positive statistically significant associations between living with another adult with diabetes (aOR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.23–2.07), common mental disorder (aOR = 2.69; 95% CI 2.12–3.42), or obesity (aOR = 1.82; 95% CI 1.33–2.50) and having the same condition. Among separate analyses of dyads of parents and their adult children and dyads of spouses, the concordance between the chronic disease status was striking. The associations between common mental disorder, hypertension, obesity, and high cholesterol in parents and those same conditions in their adult children were aOR = 2.20 (95% CI 1.28–3.77), 1.58 (95% CI 1.15–2.16), 4.99 (95% CI 2.71–9.20), and 2.57 (95% CI 1.15–5.73), respectively. The associations between diabetes and common mental disorder in husbands and those same conditions in their wives were aORs = 2.28 (95% CI 1.52–3.42) and 3.01 (95% CI 2.01–4.52), respectively. Relative odds were raised even across different chronic condition phenotypes; specifically, we observed positive statistically significant associations between hypertension and obesity in the total sample of all coresiding adults (aOR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.02–1.52), high cholesterol and diabetes in the adult-parent sample (aOR = 2.02; 95% CI 1.08–3.78), and hypertension and diabetes in the spousal sample (aOR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.05–2.17). Of all associations examined, only the relationship between hypertension and diabetes in the adult-parent dyads was statistically significantly negative (aOR = 0.62; 95% CI 0.40–0.94). Relatively small samples in the dyadic analysis and site-specific analysis call for caution in interpreting qualitative differences between associations among different dyad types and geographical locations. Because of the cross-sectional nature of the analysis, the findings do not provide information on the etiology of incident chronic conditions among household members.

Conclusions

We observed strong concordance of chronic conditions within coresiding adults across diverse settings in India. These data provide early evidence that a household-based approach to chronic disease research may advance public health strategies to prevent and control chronic conditions.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials Registry India CTRI/2013/10/004049; http://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/login.php

Keeping it real: A journal editor in clinic

Ma, 26/09/2017 - 22:00

by Larry Peiperl, on behalf of The PLOS Medicine Editors

In this month’s editorial, PLOS Medicine’s Chief Editor Larry Peiperl discusses the relevance of patient care to a journal editor’s work.

Risk, treatment duration, and recurrence risk of postpartum affective disorder in women with no prior psychiatric history: A population-based cohort study

Ma, 26/09/2017 - 22:00

by Marie-Louise H. Rasmussen, Marin Strøm, Jan Wohlfahrt, Poul Videbech, Mads Melbye

Background

Some 5%–15% of all women experience postpartum depression (PPD), which for many is their first psychiatric disorder. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of postpartum affective disorder (AD), duration of treatment, and rate of subsequent postpartum AD and other affective episodes in a nationwide cohort of women with no prior psychiatric history.

Methods and findings

Linking information from several Danish national registers, we constructed a cohort of 457,317 primiparous mothers with first birth (and subsequent births) from 1 January 1996 to 31 December 2013 (a total of 789,068 births) and no prior psychiatric hospital contacts and/or use of antidepressants. These women were followed from 1 January 1996 to 31 December 2014. Postpartum AD was defined as use of antidepressants and/or hospital contact for PPD within 6 months after childbirth. The main outcome measures were risk of postpartum AD, duration of treatment, and recurrence risk. We observed 4,550 (0.6%) postpartum episodes of AD. The analyses of treatment duration showed that 1 year after the initiation of treatment for their first episode, 27.9% of women were still in treatment; after 4 years, 5.4%. The recurrence risk of postpartum AD for women with a PPD hospital contact after first birth was 55.4 per 100 person-years; for women with postpartum antidepressant medication after first birth, it was 35.0 per 100 person-years. The rate of postpartum AD after second birth for women with no history of postpartum AD was 1.2 per 100 person-years. After adjusting for year of birth and mother’s age, women with PPD hospital contact after first birth had a 46.4 times higher rate (95% CI 31.5–68.4) and women with postpartum antidepressant medication after their first birth had a 26.9 times higher rate (95% CI 21.9–33.2) of a recurrent postpartum episode after their second birth compared to women with no postpartum AD history. Limitations include the use of registry data to identify cases and limited confounder control.

Conclusions

In this study, an episode of postpartum AD was observed for 0.6% of childbirths among women with no prior psychiatric history. The observed episodes were characterized by a relatively short treatment duration, yet the women had a notably high rate of later AD and recurrent episodes of postpartum AD. The recurrence risk of postpartum AD was markedly higher among women with PPD hospital contact after first birth compared to women with postpartum antidepressant medication after first birth. Our results underline the necessity of measures targeted at specific vulnerable groups, such as women who experience PPD as a first psychiatric episode.

Preterm birth prevention—Time to PROGRESS beyond progesterone

Ma, 26/09/2017 - 22:00

by Jane E. Norman, Phillip Bennett

In a Perspective, Jane Norman and Phillip Bennett argue that it is time to explore alternatives to progesterone for preventing preterm birth.

Vaginal progesterone pessaries for pregnant women with a previous preterm birth to prevent neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (the PROGRESS Study): A multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Ma, 26/09/2017 - 22:00

by Caroline A. Crowther, Pat Ashwood, Andrew J. McPhee, Vicki Flenady, Thach Tran, Jodie M. Dodd, Jeffrey S. Robinson, for the PROGRESS Study Group

Background

Neonatal respiratory distress syndrome, as a consequence of preterm birth, is a major cause of early mortality and morbidity. The withdrawal of progesterone, either actual or functional, is thought to be an antecedent to the onset of labour. There remains limited information on clinically relevant health outcomes as to whether vaginal progesterone may be of benefit for pregnant women with a history of a previous preterm birth, who are at high risk of a recurrence. Our primary aim was to assess whether the use of vaginal progesterone pessaries in women with a history of previous spontaneous preterm birth reduced the risk and severity of respiratory distress syndrome in their infants, with secondary aims of examining the effects on other neonatal morbidities and maternal health and assessing the adverse effects of treatment.

Methods

Women with a live singleton or twin pregnancy between 18 to <24 weeks’ gestation and a history of prior preterm birth at less than 37 weeks’ gestation in the preceding pregnancy, where labour occurred spontaneously or in association with cervical incompetence or following preterm prelabour rupture of the membranes, were eligible. Women were recruited from 39 Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian maternity hospitals and assigned by randomisation to vaginal progesterone pessaries (equivalent to 100 mg vaginal progesterone) (n = 398) or placebo (n = 389). Participants and investigators were masked to the treatment allocation. The primary outcome was respiratory distress syndrome and severity. Secondary outcomes were other respiratory morbidities; other adverse neonatal outcomes; adverse outcomes for the woman, especially related to preterm birth; and side effects of progesterone treatment. Data were analysed for all the 787 women (100%) randomised and their 799 infants.

Findings

Most women used their allocated study treatment (740 women, 94.0%), with median use similar for both study groups (51.0 days, interquartile range [IQR] 28.0–69.0, in the progesterone group versus 52.0 days, IQR 27.0–76.0, in the placebo group). The incidence of respiratory distress syndrome was similar in both study groups—10.5% (42/402) in the progesterone group and 10.6% (41/388) in the placebo group (adjusted relative risk [RR] 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–1.49, p = 0.912)—as was the severity of any neonatal respiratory disease (adjusted treatment effect 1.02, 95% CI 0.69–1.53, p = 0.905). No differences were seen between study groups for other respiratory morbidities and adverse infant outcomes, including serious infant composite outcome (155/406 [38.2%] in the progesterone group and 152/393 [38.7%] in the placebo group, adjusted RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.82–1.17, p = 0.798). The proportion of infants born before 37 weeks’ gestation was similar in both study groups (148/406 [36.5%] in the progesterone group and 146/393 [37.2%] in the placebo group, adjusted RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.81–1.17, p = 0.765). A similar proportion of women in both study groups had maternal morbidities, especially those related to preterm birth, or experienced side effects of treatment. In 9.9% (39/394) of the women in the progesterone group and 7.3% (28/382) of the women in the placebo group, treatment was stopped because of side effects (adjusted RR 1.35, 95% CI 0.85–2.15, p = 0.204). The main limitation of the study was that almost 9% of the women did not start the medication or forgot to use it 3 or more times a week.

Conclusions

Our results do not support the use of vaginal progesterone pessaries in women with a history of a previous spontaneous preterm birth to reduce the risk of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome or other neonatal and maternal morbidities related to preterm birth. Individual participant data meta-analysis of the relevant trials may identify specific women for whom vaginal progesterone might be of benefit.

Trial registration

Current Clinical Trials ISRCTN20269066.

Self-monitoring of blood pressure in hypertension: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

Ma, 19/09/2017 - 22:00

by Katherine L. Tucker, James P. Sheppard, Richard Stevens, Hayden B. Bosworth, Alfred Bove, Emma P. Bray, Kenneth Earle, Johnson George, Marshall Godwin, Beverly B. Green, Paul Hebert, F. D. Richard Hobbs, Ilkka Kantola, Sally M. Kerry, Alfonso Leiva, David J. Magid, Jonathan Mant, Karen L. Margolis, Brian McKinstry, Mary Ann McLaughlin, Stefano Omboni, Olugbenga Ogedegbe, Gianfranco Parati, Nashat Qamar, Bahman P. Tabaei, Juha Varis, Willem J. Verberk, Bonnie J. Wakefield, Richard J. McManus

Background

Self-monitoring of blood pressure (BP) appears to reduce BP in hypertension but important questions remain regarding effective implementation and which groups may benefit most. This individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was performed to better understand the effectiveness of BP self-monitoring to lower BP and control hypertension.

Methods and findings

Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for randomised trials comparing self-monitoring to no self-monitoring in hypertensive patients (June 2016). Two reviewers independently assessed articles for eligibility and the authors of eligible trials were approached requesting IPD. Of 2,846 articles in the initial search, 36 were eligible. IPD were provided from 25 trials, including 1 unpublished study. Data for the primary outcomes—change in mean clinic or ambulatory BP and proportion controlled below target at 12 months—were available from 15/19 possible studies (7,138/8,292 [86%] of randomised participants). Overall, self-monitoring was associated with reduced clinic systolic blood pressure (sBP) compared to usual care at 12 months (−3.2 mmHg, [95% CI −4.9, −1.6 mmHg]). However, this effect was strongly influenced by the intensity of co-intervention ranging from no effect with self-monitoring alone (−1.0 mmHg [−3.3, 1.2]), to a 6.1 mmHg (−9.0, −3.2) reduction when monitoring was combined with intensive support. Self-monitoring was most effective in those with fewer antihypertensive medications and higher baseline sBP up to 170 mmHg. No differences in efficacy were seen by sex or by most comorbidities. Ambulatory BP data at 12 months were available from 4 trials (1,478 patients), which assessed self-monitoring with little or no co-intervention. There was no association between self-monitoring and either lower clinic or ambulatory sBP in this group (clinic −0.2 mmHg [−2.2, 1.8]; ambulatory 1.1 mmHg [−0.3, 2.5]). Results for diastolic blood pressure (dBP) were similar. The main limitation of this work was that significant heterogeneity remained. This was at least in part due to different inclusion criteria, self-monitoring regimes, and target BPs in included studies.

Conclusions

Self-monitoring alone is not associated with lower BP or better control, but in conjunction with co-interventions (including systematic medication titration by doctors, pharmacists, or patients; education; or lifestyle counselling) leads to clinically significant BP reduction which persists for at least 12 months. The implementation of self-monitoring in hypertension should be accompanied by such co-interventions.

Cervical screening with primary HPV testing or cytology in a population of women in which those aged 33 years or younger had previously been offered HPV vaccination: Results of the Compass pilot randomised trial

Ma, 19/09/2017 - 22:00

by Karen Canfell, Michael Caruana, Val Gebski, Jessica Darlington-Brown, Stella Heley, Julia Brotherton, Dorota Gertig, Chloe J. Jennett, Annabelle Farnsworth, Jeffrey Tan, C. David Wrede, Philip E. Castle, Marion Saville

Background

Using primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical screening increases detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplastic lesions and invasive cancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ [CIN2+]) compared to cytology, but no evaluation has been conducted in a population previously offered HPV vaccination. We aimed to assess colposcopy referral and CIN2+ detection rates for HPV-screened versus cytology-screened women in Australia’s HPV-vaccinated population (by 2014, resident women ≤33 years had been age-eligible for HPV vaccination, with 3-dose uptake across age cohorts being about 50%–77%).

Methods and findings

Compass is an open-label randomised trial of 5-yearly HPV screening versus 2.5-yearly liquid-based cytology (LBC) screening. In the first phase, consenting women aged 25–64 years presenting for routine screening at 47 primary practices in Victoria, Australia, provided a cervical sample and were randomised at a central laboratory at a 1:2:2 allocation to (i) image-read LBC screening with HPV triage of low-grade cytology (‘LBC screening’), (ii) HPV screening with those HPV16/18 positive referred to colposcopy and with LBC triage for other oncogenic (OHR) types (‘HPV+LBC triage’), or (iii) HPV screening with those HPV16/18 positive referred to colposcopy and with dual-stained cytology triage for OHR types (‘HPV+DS triage’). A total of 5,006 eligible women were recruited from 29 October 2013 to 7 November 2014 (recruitment rate 58%); of these, 22% were in the group age-eligible for vaccination. Data on 4,995 participants were analysed after 11 withdrawals; 998 were assigned to, and 995 analysed (99.7%) in, the LBC-screened group; 1,996 assigned to and 1,992 analysed (99.8%) in the HPV+LBC triage group; and 2,012 assigned to and 2,008 analysed (99.8%) in the HPV+DS triage group. No serious trial-related adverse events were reported. The main outcomes were colposcopy referral and detected CIN2+ rates at baseline screening, assessed on an intention-to-treat basis after follow-up of the subgroup of triage-negative women in each arm referred to 12 months of surveillance, and after a further 6 months of follow-up for histological outcomes (dataset closed 31 August 2016). Analysis was adjusted for whether women had been age-eligible for HPV vaccination or not. For the LBC-screened group, the overall referral and detected CIN2+ rates were 27/995 (2.7% [95% CI 1.8%–3.9%]) and 1/995 (0.1% [95% CI 0.0%–0.6%]), respectively; for HPV+LBC triage, these were 75/1,992 (3.8% [95% CI 3.0%–4.7%]) and 20/1,992 (1.0% [95% CI 0.6%–1.5%]); and for HPV+DS triage, these were 79/2,008 (3.9% [95% CI 3.1%–4.9%]) and 24/2,008 (1.2% [95% CI 0.8%–1.6%]) (p = 0.09 for difference in referral rate in LBC versus all HPV-screened women; p = 0.003 for difference in CIN2+ detection rate in LBC versus all HPV-screened women, with p = 0.62 between HPV screening groups). Limitations include that the study population involved a relatively low risk group in a previously well-screened and treated population, that individual women’s vaccination status was unknown, and that long-term follow-up data on disease detection in screen-negative women are not yet available.

Conclusions

In this study, primary HPV screening was associated with significantly increased detection of high-grade precancerous cervical lesions compared to cytology, in a population where high vaccine uptake was reported in women aged 33 years or younger who were offered vaccination. It had been predicted that increased disease detection might be associated with a transient increase in colposcopy referral rates in the first round of HPV screening, possibly dampened by HPV vaccine effect; in this study, although the point estimates for referral rates in women in each HPV-screened group were 41%–44% higher than in cytology-screened women, the difference in referral rate between cytology- and HPV-screened women was not significant. These findings provide initial support for the implementation of primary HPV screening in vaccinated populations.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613001207707

Global services and support for children with developmental delays and disabilities: Bridging research and policy gaps

Lu, 18/09/2017 - 22:00

by Pamela Y. Collins, Beverly Pringle, Charlee Alexander, Gary L. Darmstadt, Jody Heymann, Gillian Huebner, Vesna Kutlesic, Cheryl Polk, Lorraine Sherr, Andy Shih, Dragana Sretenov, Mariana Zindel

Pamela Collins and colleagues explain the research and policy approaches needed globally to ensure children with developmental delays and disabilities are fully included in health and education services.

Sustained effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Counselling for Alcohol Problems, a brief psychological treatment for harmful drinking in men, delivered by lay counsellors in primary care: 12-month follow-up of a randomised controlled trial

Ma, 12/09/2017 - 22:00

by Abhijit Nadkarni, Helen A. Weiss, Benedict Weobong, David McDaid, Daisy R. Singla, A-La Park, Bhargav Bhat, Basavaraj Katti, Jim McCambridge, Pratima Murthy, Michael King, G. Terence Wilson, Betty Kirkwood, Christopher G. Fairburn, Richard Velleman, Vikram Patel

Background

Counselling for Alcohol Problems (CAP), a brief intervention delivered by lay counsellors, enhanced remission and abstinence over 3 months among male primary care attendees with harmful drinking in a setting in India. We evaluated the sustainability of the effects after treatment termination, the cost-effectiveness of CAP over 12 months, and the effects of the hypothesized mediator ‘readiness to change’ on clinical outcomes.

Methods and findings

Male primary care attendees aged 18–65 years screening with harmful drinking on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) were randomised to either CAP plus enhanced usual care (EUC) (n = 188) or EUC alone (n = 189), of whom 89% completed assessments at 3 months, and 84% at 12 months. Primary outcomes were remission and mean standard ethanol consumed in the past 14 days, and the proposed mediating variable was readiness to change at 3 months. CAP participants maintained the gains they showed at the end of treatment through the 12-month follow-up, with the proportion with remission (AUDIT score < 8: 54.3% versus 31.9%; adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.71 [95% CI 1.32, 2.22]; p < 0.001) and abstinence in the past 14 days (45.1% versus 26.4%; adjusted odds ratio 1.92 [95% CI 1.19, 3.10]; p = 0.008) being significantly higher in the CAP plus EUC arm than in the EUC alone arm. CAP participants also fared better on secondary outcomes including recovery (AUDIT score < 8 at 3 and 12 months: 27.4% versus 15.1%; aPR 1.90 [95% CI 1.21, 3.00]; p = 0.006) and percent of days abstinent (mean percent [SD] 71.0% [38.2] versus 55.0% [39.8]; adjusted mean difference 16.1 [95% CI 7.1, 25.0]; p = 0.001). The intervention effect for remission was higher at 12 months than at 3 months (aPR 1.50 [95% CI 1.09, 2.07]). There was no evidence of an intervention effect on Patient Health Questionnaire 9 score, suicidal behaviour, percentage of days of heavy drinking, Short Inventory of Problems score, WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 score, days unable to work, or perpetration of intimate partner violence. Economic analyses indicated that CAP plus EUC was dominant over EUC alone, with lower costs and better outcomes; uncertainty analysis showed a 99% chance of CAP being cost-effective per remission achieved from a health system perspective, using a willingness to pay threshold equivalent to 1 month’s wages for an unskilled manual worker in Goa. Readiness to change level at 3 months mediated the effect of CAP on mean standard ethanol consumption at 12 months (indirect effect −6.014 [95% CI −13.99, −0.046]). Serious adverse events were infrequent, and prevalence was similar by arm. The methodological limitations of this trial are the susceptibility of self-reported drinking to social desirability bias, the modest participation rates of eligible patients, and the examination of mediation effects of only 1 mediator and in only half of our sample.

Conclusions

CAP’s superiority over EUC at the end of treatment was largely stable over time and was mediated by readiness to change. CAP provides better outcomes at lower costs from a societal perspective.

Trial registration

ISRCTN registry ISRCTN76465238